Foresight analysis of
the development of
organized crime in El
Salvador for the five year
period of 2014 - 2019*
BIBLID [2225-5648 (2014), 4:2, 155-182]
Received: september 14, 2014
Accepted: november 2, 2014
Policía Nacional Civil, El Salvador
The possible developments of organized crime in El Salvador
for the 2014 – 2019 period are studied using a Foresight
analysis of scenarios. With this purpose, a concept of the
word scenario is initially established, including an explanation
on what scenario building consists of, how scenarios are built
and which is the reason for building them. Subsequently,
several methods for scenario building are described and
the most appropriate one for addressing organized crime is
established. The emancipatory method was selected because
it is considered to be the best technical basis and to have
greater results in terms of social utility and decision making.
With this method, the factors for defining the conditions that
affect the variables that can cause possible scenarios are
identified, using hypothesis verification through interviews,
statistics, literature reviews and field visits in order to shape
the evolution of organized crime under three different
situations regarding such variables: First, a situation in
which the variables do not change, second, one in which the
variables worsen, and third, one in which actions are taken
for the variables to improve.
Organized crime, foresight analysis, scenario building.
* Original Foresight study submitted to the Scientific Research Center (CINC-ANSP) for being published
in the sixth issue of the “Police and Public Security” Journal.